Statistics Jersey has published its house price report for the fourth quarter of 2023.
The Jersey House Price Index measures the combined average price of one- and two-bedroom flats and two-, three- and four-bedroom houses. The index includes properties transacted through the Royal Court as well as share transfer properties.
This year has seen a significant proportion of transactions (39%) take place as the result of completions occurring in new developments.
These sales have impacted prices differently during each quarter and inflated the level of turnover in the year. Turnover would be 58% lower compared with 2022 (rather than 43% lower) when excluding new builds in both years.
Average prices for most property types were largely unaffected by these new developments. However, in Q1 the mean price for one-bedroom flats would have been considerably higher.
Conversely in Q2 and Q4 the mean price for two-bedroom flats would have been considerably lower. Without the transactions within these new developments this year, the overall House Price Index would have decreased by 5% compared with 2022, rather than the decrease of 3% recorded.
These sales from new developments make up a significant proportion of turnover, which means that they have a large impact on the composition of market sales statistics, particularly for flats.
Annual summary for 2023
The Jersey House Price Index was 3% lower than in 2022, which was the first annual decrease in price since 2013, and the second highest annual price decrease since at least 1986.
The mean price of one-bedroom flats and two- and three-bedroom houses decreased, while the mean price of two-bedroom flats and four-bedroom houses increased, recording their highest annual mean prices to date.
Advertised private sector rental prices were 1% lower than in 2022, and the turnover of properties was 43% lower than 2022 due to decreased sales of all property types, particularly three- and four-bedroom houses (both down by 55%). But 2023 saw the lowest annual turnover since at least 2002.
Overall housing affordability worsened on an annual basis:
• All property types were less affordable to purchase than in 2022.
• A working household with mean net income was able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced one-bedroom flat.
• A working household with mean net income was not able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced house of any size or a two-bedroom flat.
• The ratio of median dwelling price to equivalised median household income in Jersey was lower than 2022 for all property types, but this was outweighed by higher mortgage interest costs, resulting in worse housing affordability overall.
In 2021/2022, rental stress improved since 2014/2015 for lower-income households in social rent and non-qualified accommodation, and was unchanged for lower-income households in qualified rent.
Q4 summary for 2023
On a rolling four-quarter basis, the mix-adjusted average price of dwellings sold in Jersey during the year ending Q4 2023 was 2% lower when compared with the previous quarter (year ending Q3 2023).
• The seasonally adjusted mix-adjusted average price was 8% lower than in the previous quarter and 8% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022).
• The mean price of two-bedroom flats increased compared with the previous quarter, reaching their highest mean price to date, although this was highly influenced by new developments.
• All other property types decreased in price compared with the previous quarter.
The turnover of properties was 36% lower than in Q4 2022 and 22% higher than in the previous quarter (Q3 2023).
Not including newly built properties, turnover would have been 56% lower than in Q4 2022 and 39% lower than in the previous quarter (Q3 2023).
Some 28% of properties transacted were not purchased to be the main residence of the purchaser(s), a 20 percentage point increase from the previous quarter.
Overall housing market activity on a rolling four-quarter basis was around 13% lower than in the previous quarter (Q3 2022) and 44% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2022.
On a rolling four-quarter basis, advertised private sector rental prices were 1% lower during the year ending Q4 2023 compared with the year ending Q3 2023.
• To view the full report click here.