Statistics Jersey has published the results from its latest Business Tendency Survey (BTS).
For the survey, which provides qualitative information about the island’s economy, chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared with three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.
Summary for the Business Tendency Survey in December 2020
Business activity indicator
• The headline all-sector business activity indicator was moderately negative, at -15 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses that reported a decrease was 15pp higher than those that reported an increase.
• The business activity indicator was moderately positive for the finance sector (+17pp) and was strongly negative for the non-finance sector (-28pp).
• The business activity indicator for finance was significantly higher than in September, while it was significantly lower for non-finance, which together resulted in no significant change for the all sector indicator.
Current indicators
• Five of the eight current indicators were significantly negative, and none were significantly positive.
• The overall picture was significantly more positive than last quarter – two current indicators increased significantly and there were no significant decreases.
Current situation: Covid-19
• The turnover indicator was moderately negative at -20pp.
• The actively working indicator was moderately negative at -16pp.
• The most commonly cited workforce measure taken in response to Covid-19 over the last three months was no action.
Outlook for next quarter – three months to March 2021
• The outlook for future business activity was neutral (-2pp) overall.
• The indicator was strongly positive for finance (+34pp) and moderately negative for non-finance (-16pp).
• The overall future employment outlook was neutral (+7pp).
• The indicator was strongly positive (+31pp) for finance and neutral for non-finance (-3pp).
Finance sector expectations for 2021
• The employment expectations indicator for 2021 was neutral (+5pp) – this indicator was 12pp lower than in December 2019.
• The profit expectations indicator for 2021 was moderately positive (+15pp); 45% of finance companies anticipated an increase in profits in 2021, compared with 30% that anticipated a decrease.
• The expected profits indicator was 33pp lower than in December 2019.
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