Jersey publishes June Business Tendency Survey results

Posted: 23/07/2020

Statistics Jersey has published the results of the latest Business Tendency Survey (BTS), the quarterly publication that provides timely, qualitative information about the island’s economy.

Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared with three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months. The highlights from the latest survey are as follows:

Business activity indicator

• The headline all-sector business activity indicator was extremely negative, at -62 percentage points (pp) – this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 62pp lower than those reporting a decrease.
• The business activity indicator was negative for the finance sector (-21pp) and extremely negative for the non-finance sector (-80pp).
• This indicator recorded its lowest level to date, overall and for both finance and non-finance.
• The business activity indicator decreased significantly over the three months to June, overall and for both finance and non-finance, with each decrease being the largest recorded to date.

Current indicators

• Six of the eight current indicators were significantly negative and none were significantly positive.
• For the finance sector, there were four negative indicators, one positive indicator and three indicators within 10pp of zero.
• For the non-finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were negative and one was within 10pp of zero.
• The overall picture was significantly more negative than last quarter – seven current indicators decreased significantly and one (input costs) improved significantly. 
• The finance sector was more negative than in March 2020 in three current indicators and more positive in one (input costs), and four indicators changed by less than 10pp.
• The non-finance sector was more negative than last quarter in seven current indicators, and more positive in one indicator (input costs).
• Six of the eight current indicators recorded their lowest levels to date, three of which were more than 20pp below the previous recorded respective minima.

Current situation: Covid-19

• The turnover indicator was extremely negative at -75pp.
• The actively working indicator was extremely negative at -51pp.
• The most commonly cited workforce measure taken in response to Covid-19 was to enrol in the government Co-Funded Payroll Scheme.

Next quarter: three months to September 2020

• The outlook for future business activity was negative (-14pp) overall, with the indicator strongly negative for finance (-32pp) and within 10pp of zero for non-finance (-6pp).
• The overall future business activity indicator was slightly more positive than three months ago, up 9pp from the lowest recorded level of -23pp in March 2020.
• The overall future employment outlook was within 10pp of zero (-7pp), as it was for finance (+8pp), while it was negative for non-finance (-13pp).
• The future employment indicator was down 9pp from last quarter overall, and was down 8pp for both finance and non-finance. 

2020: finance sector expectations

• The employment expectations indicator for 2020 was negative (-19pp). The balance for this indicator was the lowest recorded to date, the first negative recorded, and 43pp lower than in June 2019.
• The profit expectations indicator for 2020 was strongly negative (-30pp) – 62% of finance companies anticipated a decrease in profits in 2020, compared with 32% that anticipated an increase.
• The expected profits indicator was also the lowest recorded to date – the first negative balance recorded – and was 85pp lower than in June 2019.

To read the full report click here

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