Business Tendency Survey published

Posted: 18/04/2019

The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) has been released, providing timely, qualitative information about the island’s economy.

As part of the survey, compiled by Statistics Jersey, chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared with three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

First quarter 2019

The headline all-sector business activity indicator was positive, at +13 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 13pp greater than those reporting a decrease.
• The business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+39pp) and neutral for the non-finance sector (+1pp).
• The all-sector business activity indicator was essentially unchanged over the latest three months; the indicator increased by 11pp for finance, and decreased marginally for non-finance (down 3pp).

Four out of the eight current indicators were positive, two were neutral and two were negative. 
• For the finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were positive and one was negative.
• For the non-finance sector, one of the eight current indicators was positive, three were neutral and four were negative.
• The finance sector was significantly more positive than non-finance in seven of the eight current indicators, and in six of them by at least 20pp.

The overall picture was slightly more positive than last quarter; the only current indicator to change significantly was the product prices indicator, which increased.
• For the finance sector indicators, there were three significant increases: business activity, product prices and employment.
• For the non-finance sector indicators, there was one significant increase: the product prices indicator.

While the profitability indicator was negative (-11pp) overall, it was positive for the finance sector (+16pp) and negative for the non-finance sector (-23pp).

Some 50% of companies reported higher input costs, producing a strongly negative indicator of  48pp; this was more pronounced for non-finance companies (-60pp) than finance companies (-21pp).

Outlook for seond quarter to June 2019

The outlook for future business activity was strongly positive (+25pp) overall, with the finance sector being strongly positive (+39pp) and non-finance positive (+19pp).
• The future business activity indicator was significantly higher than last quarter, up 14pp.

The future employment outlook was slightly positive (+7pp) overall, with the finance sector being positive (+17pp) and non-finance neutral (+3pp).
• The future employment indicator was slightly higher than last quarter, up 4pp

To view the full Business Tendency Survey click here

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